Metals and CRM Scenarios

As global demand for critical raw materials continues to grow, crucial for an optimal supply of these materials is to predict which ones and how much of them will be needed. Ester van der Voet from Leiden University introduces scenarios assessment – a method used to deal with the problem at hand. After giving a short theoretical introduction into the method of scenario assessment, she discusses various scenarios for supply and demand of critical raw materials.

 

Module description

The most important message of this module is twofold: scenarios are an essential and very powerful tool to explore the future, but we should never interpret such an exploration as a prediction of the future. Debates around scenarios often focus on the question on how “reliable” or “realistic” such a scenario is. The answer is: no scenario is reliable or realistic, and predicting the future is not a meaningful exercise. The value of scenarios is in thinking about what might be, not what will be. What might be under certain conditions, under specific assumptions, if we assume things to go on as they are, if we assume radical changes, etc. That allows us to identify roads we would like to travel, or paths we really would like to avoid.

Scenarios for resources are still in their infancy. Some first attempts are now appearing, for example generated by the OECD and by the UN-International Resource Panel. Scenarios for critical resources are even more scarce and, given the nature of these resources, also very difficult to imagine. Especially here, what-if scenarios can be useful. The lecture slides bring together the kind of scenario analysis that exists on the topic of critical materials, and the classroom exercise explores these topics even further.

Learning objectives:

  • Understanding the value as well as the limitations of scenario analysis
  • Obtaining insight into present activities around scenario analysis of resources
  • Experimenting with the first step in scenario analysis: the development of scenario storylines

 

Teaching materials